Vulnerability and resilience of the tourism sector in India: Effects of natural disasters and internal conflict

Tourism resilience studies often focus on a single shock event. In reality, the same destination may face different kinds of shocks. It is important to compare the relative effect and resilience to different shocks. Using a panel dataset for 22 Indian states, we build random effect models to understand the impact of natural disasters and political conflict on domestic and foreign tourist arrivals. Severe conflict events affect domestic tourist arrivals negatively, while natural disasters do not. In contrast, natural disasters affect international tourist arrivals negatively but conflicts do not. We study resilience by identifying breaks in tourist arrivals and noting corresponding recovery times. Breaks were observed in more states for the international segment compared to domestic segment. Recovery times was also greater for international rather than domestic tourists. Thus domestic tourists seem to be more resilient compared to international tourists. Our study provides useful insights that may have policy implications.