Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions

Sinclair, Tara M.,(2019), Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions. , International Journal of Forecasting, UNSPECIFIED

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The research examining macroeconomic data for developed economies suggests that an understanding of the nature of data revisions is important both for the production of accurate macroeconomic forecasts and for forecast evaluation. This paper focuses on Chinese data, for which there has been substantial debate about data quality for some time. The key finding in this paper is that, while it is true that the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions are not well-behaved, they are not very different from similarly-timed U.S. macroeconomic data revisions. The positive bias in Chinese real GDP revisions is a result of the fast-growing service sector, which is notably hard to measure in real time. A better understanding of the revisions process is particularly helpful for studies of the forecast errors from surveys of forecasters, where the choice of the vintage for outcomes may have an impact on the estimated forecast errors.
Keywords : China Real-time data Data revisions Forecasting Real GDP Real GNP, UNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 35
Item Type: Article
Subjects: Ekonomi Pembangunan
Depositing User: Elok Inajati
Date Deposited: 27 Dec 2019 01:20
Last Modified: 27 Dec 2019 01:20

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